报告题目：Exploiting large-scale variability to understand controls on hydrologic extremes

报告时间：2025年5月23日，10:00-12:00

报告地点：A901

个人简历：

Thorsten Wagener，波茨坦大学 洪堡教授，欧洲科学院院士，英国工程院院士，美国地球物理联合会会士。他的研究领域为流域水文学，在流域分类、无资料地区预测和环境模型评估等领域做出了重要贡献。他开发的方法和工具广泛用于环境建模中的不确定性量化和归因分析（https://safetoolbox.github.io/）。他曾担任英国布里斯托大学教授和美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学副教授，拥有英国帝国理工学院的博士学位。他曾荣获多个奖项，包括皇家学会沃尔夫森研究奖和美国土木工程师学会的沃尔特·L·胡伯工程研究奖。

报告内容：

Global water models are increasingly used to understand past,present and future water cycles,including their extremes. However, disagreements between simulated variables make model-based inferences uncertain. Maybe even more problematically, different models even suggest different dominant hydrologic processes and thus different projected changes in flood and drought patterns. Here we demonstrate how large-scale variability can be used to assess first order controls on relevant hydrologic variables estimated using global water models, such as streamflow or groundwater table depth. We find significant uncertainty which suggest that we require strategies that can provide valuable insights even under such conditions. Using the example of flooding, we further show how stress-testing the global human-Earth system can help to understand the sensitivity of inundated areas and population exposure to a wide range of plausible future conditions. This approach is one strategy to identify where future changes to flooding or exposure might be most critical even if the magnitude and frequency of future flooding might be quite uncertain. This study presents a global analysis of the sensitivity of inundated areas and population exposure to varying flood event magnitudes for 1.2 million river reaches.