| 英文摘要： |
Clearly, water conservancy projects are advantageous for human beings; however, they significantly change the streamflow variability of rivers. This change is a result of the complex and non-linear interactions between natural processes and human activities. Thus far, our understanding of these interactions is still inadequate. In this study, these interactions were evaluated for a large river basin (i.e. the Pearl River basin) with numerous reservoirs to identify reservoir operation scenarios for mitigating drought and flood impacts. To this end, first, the flow variability pattern was derived based on the concept of the admissible range of flow variability. Second, the moving average over shifting horizon method was used to evaluate the effects of the reservoirs on the streamflow variability. Finally, the network theory and data mining technology were applied to establish the streamflow relations between the upstream and downstream reservoirs. The results show that the cascade reservoirs reshape the streamflow variability patterns of the Pearl River in time and space and have a cumulative effect on the downstream runoff. The constructed networks and the identified operation scenarios present that this effect is mainly influenced by the upstream critical reservoirs having different inflows and storage capacities. This suggests the varied roles of the reservoirs for drought mitigation and flood control limiting the formulation and application of integrated operating strategies for the multi-reservoir system. |
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