| 英文摘要： |
Study Region Mekong River Basin and surrounding areas. Study Focus: This study investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Mekong River Basin and its surrounding areas. Our work is based on the output of five global climate models (GCMs) and simulations using the geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) for the historical (1975-2004), near future (2010-2039), middle future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099) periods. The meteorological droughts in the study area were measured using SPI and SPEI, while the hydrological droughts were measured using SSI. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The results suggest that droughts will generally reduce in the future over most of the study area, but will be more unevenly distributed with an eastward migration as compared to the historical period. Both meteorological and hydrological droughts will intensify in the near future, but will then reduce in intensity. Meteorological droughts will increase in the northeastern areas in the near future, followed by migration towards the south. Hydrological droughts showed similar aggravation followed by reduction, with upstream areas showing greater variability. In the general context of drought alleviation, southwestern China and the Mekong River estuary may suffer from a continuously increasing drought intensity in the future. This finding is based on 100-year extreme drought events. |
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