| 英文摘要： |
The impact of climate change on farmers' livelihoods has been observed in various forms at the local and regional scales. It is well known that the Himalayas region is affected by climate change, as reflected in the basic knowledge of farmers in the region. A questionnaire-based survey involving a total of 747 households was conducted to gather information on climate change and its impact, where the survey addressed four physiographic regions of the trans-boundary Koshi River Basin (KRB). Moreover, climatic data were used to calculate climatic trends between 1980 and 2018. The Mann-Kendall trend test was performed and the Sen's slope calculated to analyze the inter-annual climatic trends over time. The survey noted that, for the basin, there was an increase in temperature, climate-induced diseases of crops, an increase in the frequency of pests as well as drought and floods and a decrease in rainfall, all which are strong indicators of climate change. It was perceived that these indicators had adverse impacts on crop production (89.4%), human health (82.5%), livestock (68.7%) and vegetation (52.1%). The observed climatic trends for all the physiographic regions included an increasing temperature trend and a decreasing rainfall trend. The rate of change varied according to each region, hence strongly supporting the farmers' local knowledge of climate change. The highest increasing trend of temperature noted in the hill region at 0.0975 degrees C/a (p = 0.0002) and sharpest decreasing trend of rainfall in the mountain region by -10.424 mm/a (p = 0.016) between 1980 and 2018. Formulation of suitable adaptation strategies according to physiographic region can minimize the impact of climate change. New adaptation strategies proposed include the introduction of infrastructure for irrigation systems, the development of crop seeds that are more tolerant to drought, pests and disease tolerance, and the construction of local hospitals for the benefit of farming communities. |
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