| 摘 要： |
The Sichuan-Tibet railway goes across the Upper Jinsha River, along which a large number of large historical landslides have occurred and dammed the river. Therefore, it is of great significance to investigate large potential landslides along the Jinsha River. In this paper, we inspect the deformation characteristics of a rapid landsliding area along the Jinsha River by using multi-temporal remote sensing, and analyzed its future development and risk to the Sichuan-Tibet railway. Surface deformations and damage features between January 2016 and October 2020 were obtained using multi-temporal InSAR and multi-temporal correlations of optical images, respectively. Deformation and failure signs obtained from the field investigation were highly consistent. Results showed that cumulative deformation of the landsliding area is more than 50 cm, and the landsliding area is undergoing an accelerated deformation stage. The external rainfall condition, water level, and water flow rate are important factors controlling the deformation. The increase of rainfall, the rise of water level, and faster flow rate will accelerate the deformation of slope. The geological conditions of the slope itself affect the deformation of landslide. Due to the enrichment of gently dipping gneiss and groundwater, the slope is more likely to slide along the slope. The Jinsha River continuously scours the concave bank of the slope, causing local collapses and forming local free surfaces. Numerical simulation results show that once the landsliding area fails, the landslide body may form a 4-km-long dammed lake, and the water level could rise about 200 m; the historic data shows that landslide dam may burst in 2-8 days after sliding. Therefore, strategies of landslide hazard mitigation in the study area should be particularly made for the coming rainy seasons to mitigate risks from the landsliding area. |
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