| 摘 要： |
Eco-industrial parks (EIPs) are of increasing importance for implementing industrial ecology strategies and are facing increasing challenges in terms of environmental pollution and resource scarcity. As a complex adaptive system, an EIP involves multiple sectors and faces various disturbances that influence its evolutionary trajectories. This study adopts an agent-based model to simulate the material flows and industrial symbiosis process in the EIP, considering the initiative of each company and the ever-changing environment. The proposed EIP model emphasises the heterogeneity of companies and attempts to reflect multiple and dynamic factors that have received less attention in previous studies. This model contains two types of agents, companies and the external environment. A company agent makes decisions and interacts with other agents following its own behaviour rules, while the external environment agent functions to coordinate the material flows and exert influence on the companies. The model has been verified and validated by simulating a 20-year-period development of an empirical EIP in China. The simulation results are assessed by three indicators: eco-connectance, eco-efficiency, and industrial symbiosis indicator. Results showed that during the growing phase, the eco-connectance increased from 0.02 to 0.1 for the non-disturbance situation. The eco-efficiency and industrial symbiosis indicator also realised 78.5% and 74.8% of their total increments. The outcome of this research provides insights for the design of the strategies to improve the industrial symbiosis performance and is of high potential to facilitate EIPs in promoting eco-transformation and sustainable development. |
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