| 摘 要： |
A warming climate will intensify the water cycle, resulting in an exacerbation of water resources crises and flooding risks in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB). The mitigation of these risks requires accurate streamflow and flood simulations. Process-based and data-driven hydrological models are the two major approaches for streamflow simulations, while a hybrid of these two methods promises advantageous prediction accuracy. In this study, we developed a hybrid physics-data (HPD) methodology for streamflow and flood prediction under the physics-guided neural network modeling framework. The HPD methodology leveraged simulation information from a process-based model (i.e., VIC-CaMa-Flood) along with the meteorological forcing information (precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and wind speed) to simulate the daily streamflow series and flood events, using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. This HPD methodology outperformed the pure process-based VIC-CaMa-Flood model or the pure observational data driven LSTM model by a large margin, suggesting the usefulness of introducing physical regularization in data-driven modeling, and the necessity of observation-informed bias correction for process-based models. We further developed a gradient boosting tree method to measure the information contribution from the process-based model simulation and the meteorological forcing data in our HPD methodology. The results show that the process-based model simulation contributes about 30% to the HPD outcome, outweighing the information contribution from each of the meteorological forcing variables (<20%). Our HPD methodology inherited the physical mechanisms of the process-based model, and the high predictability capability of the LSTM model, offering a novel way for making use of incomplete physical understanding, and insufficient data, to enhance streamflow and flood predictions. |
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