| 摘 要： |
China has led global greening processes over recent decades, however, a series of negative impacts have inevitably emerged in some areas, especially on the Loess Plateau. While the potential for afforestation of the Loess Plateau has been identified, the micro-regions where afforestation should be prioritized have yet to be identified. We constructed a framework for identification of land suitable for forest on the Loess Plateau. By simulating land use changes on the Loess Plateau under various development scenarios for the period from 2020 to 2030, we identified land that is suitable for afforestation and explored the trends and spatial distribution of different forest stands. The results show that only ~ 40 km(2) on the Loess Plateau is suitable for forest growth by 2030, mainly in the eastern region, with the southeastern part of the Loess Plateau at greater risk of degradation. The suitable land for forest growth is fragmented. Under the current climate conditions and policy background, we believe there is limited opportunity for large-scale conversion of farmland to forest on the Loess Plateau; however, if the afforestation areas are scientifically planned, it is feasible to achieve greening in local areas. Grasslands may be a more suitable primary approach to ecological restoration in the Loess Plateau region. The results will help guide more efficient and sustainable afforestation projects in the Loess Plateau region. |
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