| 摘 要： |
Using the system dynamics simulation software Vensim PLE, we built a model to simulate the development of resilient human settlement in Changsha. This model includes five subsystems: living, economy, society, ecology and engineering. The model simulates various scenarios, based on different parameter settings to predict the trend of human settlement from 2019-2040 in Changsha. It puts forward four development programs under different simulation scenarios. The results show that the current system of human settling lacks self-regulation and feedback, where simple increases in the economy and urbanization cannot drive the internal system to progress positively. In contrast, the resilient human settlement program is more reasonable and scientific, up to the year 2040, the production, living and ecological environment of residents will be markedly improved in terms of per capita disposable income, per capita floor space and medical insurance coverage; these will increase by 98.9%, 39.7%, and 170.7%, respectively. This system of developing resilient human settlement provides feedback according to the internal relation loops and thus drives itself to adjust and recover, achieving harmonious and sustainable development. In the forthcoming development, we should take the initiative to optimize economic development and upgrade industrial structures, establish emergency plans and response mechanisms to enhance human quality of life. |
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