| 摘 要： |
Rural migrants have difficulty obtaining decent housing in destinations, which has a profound impact on their quality of life and settlement intentions. Previous studies on rural migrants' settlement intention roughly care more about individuals and family, hometown connection, and economic status, paying less attention to the analysis of urban housing. The city attraction is also not fully considered in impact model. This paper discusses a hierarchical impact model of rural migrants' settlement intentions based on probability choice theory, focusing on the impact of housing conditions, including housing type, housing burden, live-in family members, and housing pressure, and urban house prices on rural migrants' intention to settle in cities. The finding is that reliable and high-quality housing, housing expenditure ratio, number of live-in family members, and a sense of housing pressure are positively correlated with the settlement intentions of rural migrants. The odds ratio of the settlement intention of them who own houses, rent public houses, and borrow houses is 3.70x, 1.93x, and 1.82x, respectively, when using rental housing as the reference. The odds ratio of those living in shared rental house and housing provided by employers is lower. If the housing expenditure ratio increases by 1 unit from the average value, then the probability of settlement intention in the city is 1.737 times the probability that rural migrants will not settle. If the number of live-in family members increases by 1 person, then the probability of settlement intention in the city increases by 19.6%. The odds ratio of the settlement intentions under housing pressure is 1.04 times that of the opposite scenario. The impact of house price on the settlement intentions turns out to be nonlinear, showing an inverted U shape, that is, when a house price beyond a specific range has a negative effect. In addition, the urban economic level and administrative level have an important positive effect, and province-level municipality has a significantly positive effect. The results will help formulate targeted population and housing policies to serve new urbanization. |
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