| 摘 要： |
Farmland abandonment is a global phenomenon. Changes in socioeconomic factors in China impact the traditional crop-livestock system; however, studies on the relationship between livestock raising and farmland abandonment are insufficient. This study used the farmer behavior decision-making model to analyze the impact of livestock raising on farmland abandonment and its mechanism. Based on 6707 samples from the 2016 database of the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey, the Logit and Tobit models were used to empirically analyze the relationship between livestock raising and farmland abandonment at the national level and different terrains (plain, hill and mountain) in China. The results showed farmland abandonment in 15.63% of rural households, and a farmland abandonment ratio of 6.24%. The spatial distribution of farmland abandonment was high in the south and low in the north. Livestock raising households accounted for 9.45%, and the influence coefficient of livestock raising on farmland abandonment was negative but not significant. Livestock raising would significantly increase the ratio of rural households with farmland abandonment by 3.9% and 10% in plain areas and hilly areas, respectively, and decrease the ratio in mountain areas by 11.4%. The abandonment ratio due to livestock raising increased by 21.46% in hilly areas and decrease by 41% in mountain areas. For every 1% increase in livestock scale, the ratio of households with farmland abandonment in plain and hilly areas increased by 0.05% and 0.07%, respectively, and in mountain areas decreased by 0.09%. The abandonment ratio in hilly areas increased by 0.02% and in mountain areas decreased by 0.05%. The effects of raising livestock on farmland abandonment differed across terrains and thus require different measures for alleviating. Plain areas and hilly areas could combine livestock raising and crop planting between different households to improve farmland production capacity, and mountain areas could moderately develop livestock raising to alleviate farmland abandonment. |
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