| 摘 要： |
Energy crises, water shortages, and rising carbon emissions are constantly posing new demands and challenges to global economic development. Considering the problem of high emissions and high water consumption in the process of energy production and transformation in resource-based cities, this study established the LEAP-Jincheng model based on the low emissions analysis platform (LEAP) model. Taking 2020 as the base year, the baseline scenario (BS), policy scenario (PS), and intensified scenario (IS) were set to predict future energy and water consumption and carbon emissions of Jincheng from 2021 to 2050. The results show that both PS and IS can achieve energy conservation and emission reduction to some extent. The total energy consumption of PS will be 32.89 million metric tons of coal equivalent in 2050, 15.62% less than the BS. However, the carbon emissions in 2030 will reach 8221 metric tons CO2 equivalent, which is significantly higher than that in other scenarios. In PS, carbon emissions after 2030 will not be significantly reduced, and the energy-water elasticity coefficient is -0.77, which fails to achieve effective emission reduction under energy-water synergy. The total energy consumption of the IS will be 22.57 million metric tons of coal equities in 2050, which has a total decrease of 31.38%, compared to BS. In the IS, the carbon emissions will reach a peak in 2030 (68.77 million metric tons CO2 equivalent) and subsequently reduce to 50.72 million metric tons CO2 equivalent in 2050, which has a total decrease of 50.64%, compared to BS. Furthermore, water consumption and energy-water synergy results show that the elastic coefficient is 1.37 in the IS. The IS is the best scenario for Jincheng to achieve coordinated development of energy and water resources from a low-carbon perspective. This study can provide a scientific basis for decision-making departments of Jincheng to formulate targeted sustainable development policies for energy and water and has an essential promoting significance for China to achieve the double carbon goals. |
在线留言
联系我们
所长信箱