| 摘 要： |
In the context of global carbon reduction, many countries have established carbon-neutral commitments. With abundant wind-solar-hydro-geothermal resources, the development of renewable energy in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau can meet the demand for carbon neutrality. Accordingly, this study aims to carry out an innovative and systematic assessment of renewable energy, considering the new pattern of multiple renewable energies (wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal energy) centralized co-development. A propagable analysis is conducted, based on two hypotheses, namely, considering resource conditions and taking plateau-specific practical constraints and energy storage into account. Resource concentration and synergy are further analyzed by a novel indicator and multiple scenarios are initiated to reduce the subjectivity, while various distance thresholds for substations with varying voltage levels are innovatively defined to optimize the assessment accuracy. Taking the Lhasa River Basin as the study area, results show that areas with suitable resources for two, three, and four types of renewable energy centralized co-development account for 41.3%, 32.7%, and 5.8% of the total area, respectively. After constraints considered, eligible areas for wind, photovoltaic, geothermal, and hydro power decline sharply to 6.0%, 22.3%, 13.5%, and 13.1% of the entire basin, with potentials of 4.91, 12.68, 10.77, and 0.97 GW. Under the highly suitable scenario, the proportions plummet to 0.2%, 1.6%, 0.6%, and 0.4%, with potentials of 0.12, 0.99, 0.29, and 0.02 GW, reflecting a high sensitivity to plateau-specific practical constraints. Wind power potential is the most sensitive to construction difficulty and investment reward among these resources, whereas hydropower potential has the strongest response to ecological protection. Results also show that more than a quarter of the renewable energy centrally developable areas have energy synergies, indicating the applicability of renewable energy centralized co-development. |
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