| 摘 要： |
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important ecological security shelter in China, yet the environment here remains fragile and is difficult to restore. This ecosystem is likely to face additional threats in the future as it will be influenced by human activities and climate change. Although a number of investigations regarding land cover changes on the TP as well as resultant influences on ecosystem services have been performed over recent decades, reliable evaluation of future land cover change scenarios and their potential ecological impacts remain absent. Thus, to remedy this, we developed a method that can spatially and explicitly evaluate TP ecosystem services responses to future land cover changes. Simulation results for TP land cover changes between 2010 and 2030 reveal that under a business-as-usual scenario, grassland area will increase by 1.04%, wetland area will increase by 6.01%, and forested area will increase by 0.07%. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, forested and wetland areas will increase by 1.06% and 28.87% respectively, while grassland area will increase by 7.09%. We then calculated the responses of ecosystem services over the period same period; results show that under a business-as-usual scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a net primary productively (NPP) increase of 0.004%, a 0.011% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.023% decrease in water yield. In contrast, under an ecological protection scenario, land cover changes on the TP would lead to a NPP increase of 0.006%, a 0.007% decrease in soil conservation services, and a 0.007% decrease in water yield. Ecosystem service values given an ecological protection scenario will be slightly higher than those given a business-as-usual scenario. |
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