陶福禄

博士，中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所研究员，博士生导师。中国科学院大学资源与环境学院岗位教授。国内外主流期刊《Agricultural and Forest Meteorology》、《European Journal of Agronomy》、《Climate Research》、《气象学报》、《地理学报》英文版、《中国农业气象》等期刊编委。1999年于中国科学院生态环境研究中心获生态学博士学位。2001-2008年在日本农业环境技术研究所和筑波大学任特别研究员。 

研究领域和研究方向： 

主要研究领域为全球变化生态学、农业生态学和农林气象学。长期致力于农业生态系统对全球变化的响应和适应机理、模型研发、风险评估及调控对策研究。围绕领域前沿科学和国家重大需求问题，从农业生态系统对全球变化的响应和适应机理、农业系统模型研发、全球变化影响风险预估及应对策略优化，到水土资源演变、粮食和生态安全综合集成研究。 

近期科研进展： 

系统揭示了1980年以来我国农业生产系统对气候变化和气候极端的响应和适应的事实、机理、敏感性和时空格局。自主研发了MCWLA系列作物模型和超集合概率预测技术方法，研发了新一代气候变化影响评价系统“区域农业对气候变化响应和适应的超集合预测系统”。在农业生产系统对气候变化的响应和适应机理、农业系统模型研发、全球变化影响超集合概率预测、适应模式定量优化与气候智慧型农业系统设计等方面取得系统性创新成果。在包括Nature子刊、Global Change Biology、Agri. For. Metorol.等国际知名期刊发表SCI论文260余篇。总引用约1.3万次（据google scholar）。被IPCC评价报告引用近30次，其中有关“未来农业灌溉需水量变化”的研究成果被引为‘New Knowledge’；有关“气候变化影响超集合概率预测”的研究成果被引为‘Novel development’。有关“气候变化和土地利用变化对农业生产和粮食安全影响及其适应”的研究成果被《Science》报道。有关“历史作物产量变化归因”的研究成果被欧洲农学学会作为亮点报道。入选爱思唯尔“2020年中国高被引学者”，入选“气候变化研究领域全球最具影响力的1000位科学家名单”。 

近期代表论著： 

1. Xin, Y., Tao, F*. 2021. Have the agricultural production systems in the North China Plain changed towards to climate smart agriculture since 2000? Journal of Cleaner Production, 299, 126940 

2. Zhai, R., Tao, F*. 2021. Climate change in China affects runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention more than changes in leaf area index and land use/cover over the period 1982–2015. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences,126, e2020JG005902.  

3. Zhai, R., Tao, F*., Lall, U., Elliott, J. 2021. Africa would need to import more maize in the future even under 1.5°C warming scenario. Earth's Future, 9(1), e2020EF001574.  

4. Li, Y, Hou, R, Tao, F*. 2021. Wheat morpho‐physiological traits and radiation use efficiency under interactive effects of warming and tillage management. Plant Cell Environ. 2020, 1–16.  

5. Li, Y., Hou, R., Tao F.*. 2020. Interactive effects of different warming levels and tillage managements on winter wheat growth, physiological processes, grain yield and quality in the North China Plain, Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 295, 106923. 

6. Xin, Y., Tao, F.*. 2020. Developing climate-smart agricultural systems in the North China Plain. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 291, 106791. 

7. Zhang, Z., Li, Z., Chen, Y., Zhang, L., Tao, F.* 2020. Improving regional wheat yields estimations by Multi-Step-Assimilating of a Crop Model with Multi-source Data. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 290, 107993. 

8. Zhang, H. Tao, F.*, Zhou, G. 2019. Potential yields, yield gaps, and optimal agronomic management practices for rice production systems in different regions of China, Agricultural Systems, 171, 100-112. 

9. Xin, Y., Tao F.*. 2019. Optimizing genotype-environment-management interactions to enhance productivity and eco-efficiency for wheat-maize rotation in the North China Plain, Science of The Total Environment, 654, 480-492. 

10. Chen Y., Zhang Z., Tao F*. 2018. Improving regional winter wheat yield estimation through assimilation of phenology and leaf area index from remote sensing data. European Journal of Agronomy, 101, 163-173. 

11. Zhai R., Tao F.*, Xu Z. 2018. Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2？°C warming scenarios across China. Earth System Dynamics 9 (2), 717-738. 

12. Chen Y., Zhang Z., Tao F.* 2018. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0° C. Earth System Dynamics 9 (2), 543-562. 

13. Tao, F.*, Feng, Z., Tang, H., Chen,Y., Kobayashi, K. 2017. Effects of climate change, CO₂ and O₃ on wheat productivity in Eastern China, singly and in combination. Atmospheric Environment, 153, 182-193.  

14. Tao, F.*, Zhang, S., Zhang, Z., R？tter, R.P. 2015. Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China, Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 208, 12-20. 

15. Tao F.*, Zhang, S., Zhang Z., R？tter, R.P. 2014. Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift. Global Change Biology, 20, 3686-3699. 

16. Tao F.*, et al., 2014. Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981-2009. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 189–190, 91–104. 

17. Xiao D, Tao F*, 2014. Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades. Eur. J. Agron. 52, 112-122 

18. Tao, F.*, Zhang,Z., Shi,W. Liu,Y. Xiao,D., Zhang,S., Zhu,Z., Wang, M.,Liu F. Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981-2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Global Change Biology. 2013, 19, 3200–3209. 

19. Asseng, S. et al., 2013. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate change. 3, 827–832 

20. Tao, F., Zhang, S，Zhang Z. 2013. Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes. Regional Environmental Change, 13, 743–759. 

21. Moiwo JP, Tao F.*, Lu Wenxi. 2013. Analysis of satellite-based and in situ hydro-climatic data depicts water storage depletion in North China Region. Hydrological Processes, 27, 1011-1020. 

22. Tao F.*, Zhang Z. 2013. Climate Change, High Temperature Stress, Rice Productivity and Water Use in Eastern China: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013, 52, 531–551. 

23. Xiao D, Tao F.*, Liu Y, Shi W, et al., 2013. Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981-2009. International Journal of Biometeorology.57, 275-285. 

24. Tao F.*, Z Zhang. 2013. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170，146-166. 

25. Zhang S, Tao F.*. 2013. Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: Comparisons of five models. European Journal of Agronomy, 45, 167-176. 

26. Tao F., Zhang S, Zhang Z. 2012. Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology in China under the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics. European Journal of Agronomy, 43, 201-212. 

27. Tao F, Z. Zhang. 2010. Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: Quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. European Journal of Agronomy, 33, 103-116. 

28. Tao, F, Z. Zhang, J. Liu. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Super-ensemble-based Probabilistic Projection. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1266–127. 

29. Tao, F, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang. 2009. Modeling the Impacts of Weather and Climate Variability on Crop Productivity over a Large Area: A New Process-based Model Development, Optimization, and Uncertainties Analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 831–850. 

30. Tao, F, Y. Hayashi, M. Yokozawa, Z. Zhang, T. Sakamoto. 2008. Global Warming, Rice Production and Water Use in China: Developing a Probabilistic Assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 148, 94–110. 

招生专业和招生方向： 

招生专业: 生态学 

招生方向: 全球变化生态学；全球变化与区域生态/农业响应；生态水文；农业生态学；农林气象学 

联系方式: 

北京市朝阳区大屯路甲11号 

中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 

邮编：100101 

Email: taofl@igsnrr.ac.cn 

电话：010-64888269 

更新日期：2021年5月31日