| 摘 要： |
Warming in permafrost regions stimulates carbon (C) release through decomposition, but increasing atmospheric CO2 and available soil nitrogen enhance plant productivity at the same time. To date, a large uncertainty in the regional C dynamics still remains. Here we use a process-based biogeochemical model by considering C exposure from thawed permafrost and observational data to quantify permafrost C emissions and ecosystem C budget in northern high latitudes in the 21st century. Permafrost degradation will make 119.3 Pg and 251.6 Pg C available for decomposition by 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)126 and SSP585, respectively. However, only 4-8% of the newly thawed permafrost C is expected to be released into the atmosphere by 2100. Cumulatively, permafrost degradation will reduce ecosystem C stocks by 3.37 Pg and 15.37 Pg under the SSP126 and SSP585, respectively. Additionally, CO2 fertilization effects would stimulate plant productivity and increase ecosystem C stocks substantially. The combined effects of climate change, CO2 fertilization, and permafrost degradation on C fluxes are typically more profound than any single factor, emphasizing the intricate interplay between these elements in shaping permafrost C-climate feedbacks. Our study suggests that the majority of the thawed C will remain sequestered in previously frozen layers in this century, posing a significant challenge to climate change mitigation efforts once any process accelerates the decomposition of this huge amount of thawed C. |
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