| 摘 要： |
Fragile high-altitude regions are highly sensitive to climate change. In the past decades, the annual warming rate of these regions has been twice that of the world average. Combined with the changing precipitation, the intensification of climate change in high-altitude areas may lead to serious ecological degradation, posing ecological risks that threaten human well-being and sustainable development. However, there is a significant knowledge gap in ecological risk research in the context of climate change in high-elevation areas. Taking the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau known as the World Roof as a typical case, we constructed a methodological framework for ecological risk assessment from 2000 to 2020 under temperature and precipitation changes and significant degradation in ecosystem structures and services. The results show that a significant decrease in precipitation in the southern and western parts of the plateau leads to high ecological risk, while an increase in precipitation in the northeastern and eastern parts of the plateau also experiences high-level risk. The significant decrease in water yield caused by reduced precipitation in the southern and western parts of the plateau is a specific pathway leading to high ecological risks. We suggest strengthening ecosystem conservation by protecting areas in climate change ecological risks-prone areas. Building a regional climate lever, protecting the forest that are mainly distributed in the southern and eastern parts of the plateau, and enhancing the capabilities of ecological risk management in a government-led and socially participation approach is also recommended. The study provides insights for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and other high-altitude ecosystems to address the challenges of ecosystem management under climate change. |
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