报告题目：New approaches to using and evaluating global water models in support of scientific inquiry and decision making in a changing world

报告时间：2024年9月18日， 15:30-17:30

报告地点：A901

个人简历：

Thorsten Wagener，波茨坦大学 洪堡教授，欧洲科学院院士，英国工程院院士，美国地球物理联合会会士。他的研究领域为流域水文学，在流域分类、无资料地区预测和环境模型评估等领域做出了重要贡献。他开发的方法和工具广泛用于环境建模中的不确定性量化和归因分析（https://safetoolbox.github.io/）。他曾担任英国布里斯托大学教授和美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学副教授，拥有英国帝国理工学院的博士学位。他曾荣获多个奖项，包括皇家学会沃尔夫森研究奖和美国土木工程师学会的沃尔特·L·胡伯工程研究奖。

报告内容：

Global water models are increasingly used to understand past, present and future water cycles. They offer new insights into causes of large-scale variability of hydrologic processes and extremes, such as floods and droughts, and enable us to estimate the potential influence of climate change. However, disagreements between simulated and observed variables make model-based inferences uncertain. Our ability to fully and reliably observe and simulate the terrestrial hydrologic cycle is limited, and in-depth experimental studies cover only a tiny fraction of our landscape. Important questions are therefore: In which regions is our ability to simulate hydrologic processes well developed, and where is it poor? Where are available data sets informative,and where are they just poor approximations of likely system properties and dynamics?How do we best identify and acknowledge these gaps to better understand and reduce the uncertainty in characterizing hydrologic systems?In my group we develop new strategies to evaluate the behavior of distributed large-scale water models in new ways. These strategies allow for a process-based evaluation which does not just reveal differences between models and observations, but also provide guidance for potential model improvements. I will present examples of this work using the current generation of global water models. Additionally, we need approaches to use such large-scale models in an effective and robust manner to support decision making despite current uncertainties. I will further present recent work about utilizing global flood inundation simulations in a new way to derive risk indices that give inside into the relative risk from future flooding for communities around the world.