| 摘 要： |
In a context of global climate change and issues relating to national carbon neutrality, carbon emissions (CE), which are linked with sustainable national development, have become the focus of worldwide competition. We performed geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis using historical CE data for major countries and world regions for the period 1970-2018 to identify their cumulative and per capita CE. The analysis revealed the characteristics of large cumulative CE in countries that underwent early industrialization, notably the USA, Russia, and Germany and of low per capita emissions in developing countries, notably China and India. We identified 10 mainstream international emission reduction scenarios and compared and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of different models for measuring CE allowances. We further summarized the characteristics of IPCC scenarios, shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, and temperature-controlled threshold scenarios along with the CE allowances of China and other major countries under different scenarios. The intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) commitment mechanism may have an impact on promoting the construction of a new global climate governance order. Considering multiple scenarios and the uncertainty of carbon emissions, choosing a certain carbon budget plan is an important future research direction. Last, we reviewed the current methods of allocating CE rights globally and among major countries and the development trend of CE to provide scientific evidence for the formulation and implementation of future international climate change agreements. In conclusion, we offer solutions for enhancing participation in the global governance of climate change. |
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