| 摘 要： |
Evaluating the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is the prerequisite and foundation for the planning and management of water resources. In this paper, according to risk theory, a framework for the risk assessment of WRCC was proposed based on the fragility of damage-affected bodies and the damage posed by disaster-inducing factors. Then, based on water quantity, water quality, water area, and water flow, a fragility index system was constructed from the water resources, economy, and society category. Additionally, the damage was analyzed in terms of climate change, urbanization, and industrialization. Finally, a model for the risk assessment of the WRCC was established by combining the fragility of the water resources carrying system with the compound damage posed by climate change, urbanization, and industrialization. The developed model was then applied to assess the risk of the WRCC in North China in 2017. The results indicate that the fragility of the WRCC was the highest in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the compound damage showed an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest in North China. Meanwhile, the risk of the WRCC decreased from the southeast to the northwest, the highest risk was observed in Hebei Province, and the lowest risk was observed in Inner Mongolia. This research provides an important technical guideline for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the coordinated development of the economy and society. |
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