| 摘 要： |
Renewable energy generation is a crucial route to achieve carbon neutrality. In this paper, a methodology integrating richness, stability, and complementarity to assess accommodable potential of solar and wind power generation was proposed and implemented in Ordos, a resource-based city in northwestern China. Results showed wind and especially solar resources were abundant, with maximum of 6.74 kWh/m(2)/day in summer and 6.9 m/s in spring based on hourly data from 1981 to 2020. Availability of solar (>60%) and wind resources (>80%) was best in the abovementioned seasons. A comprehensive evaluation of stability showed these resources were both stable in spring. Continuity of wind resources was stronger than that of solar (94.5% > 91.3%), and it's variability was also higher (1.9 > 1.4). Then, using correlation coefficients, complementarity degree of these resources was qualitatively identified as moderate. Aiming for stability, the optimal complementary ratio of solar and wind power generation was quantified at 1:0.27, with instability reduced by 10.4%-44.4%, and their power generation could be maximally accommodated by the grid. Scenario analysis predicted a maximum of 2.46% of Ordos land could meet the demand for renewable energy development in 2025. This study provides methodology and model research on orderly replacement of fossils by renewable energy in northwestern China as well as in similar regions globally. |
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