| 摘 要： |
Compound extreme events, such as events with concurrent extreme temperature and precipitation, are often more devastating than single events occurring independently with serious impacts on human society. In this study, we analyzed the future evolution of compound extreme summer days, namely, compound hot-dry days (CHDDs) and compound hot-wet days (CHWDs), in China and explored the relative changes in population and economic exposure based on climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results showed that compound extreme days will be more frequent and severe under different scenarios in which the frequency of CHDDs is relatively high with a relatively high growth rate of CHWDs. The frequency of compound extreme days will continue to increase under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios but decline after 2070 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. In general, the growth rate of population exposure to moderate/severe CHDDs ranges from 0 to 10%/30 to 50%. Meanwhile, the increasing rate of population exposure to moderate/severe CHWDs ranges from 0 to 30%/30 to 100%. GDP exposure to moderate/severe CHDDs would increase by 0-50%/100-400%, and severe CHWDs increased GDP exposure by more than 800%. Socioeconomic exposure to CHWDs will increase at a faster rate in the future. Due to the increase in compound extreme days and population decline, the relative contribution of climate change to population exposure is larger. Economic development alongside an increase in the number of compound extreme days will contribute relatively more to the interaction of climate and GDP, increasing GDP exposure. This study offers useful insights into mitigation and adaptation measures for compound extreme events and potential climate change in China. |
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