| 摘 要： |
Attribution of compound events informs preparedness for emerging hazards with disproportionate impacts. However, the task remains challenging because space-time interactions among extremes and uncertain dynamic changes are not satisfactorily addressed in the well-established attribution framework. For attributing the 2020 record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event in China, we conduct a storyline attribution analysis by designing simulation experiments via a weather forecast model, quantifying component-based attributable changes, and comparing with historical flow analogs. We quantify that given the large-scale circulation, anthropogenic influence to date has exacerbated the extreme Mei-yu rainfall in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during June-July 2020 by similar to 6.5% and warmed the co-occurring seasonal extreme heat in South China by similar to 1 degrees C. Our projections show a further intensification of the compound event by the end of this century, with moderate emissions making the rainfall totals similar to 14% larger and the season similar to 2.1 degrees C warmer in South China than the 2020 status. |
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