| 摘 要： |
Identification of the spatial mismatch between grain production and farmland resources and its influencing factors remains a key issue affecting global food security. However, previous studies have not considered the time length series on a global scale. Therefore, using global grain production and farmland area data from 1992 to 2020, we explored this spatial mismatch and its influencing factors in 151 countries worldwide. Specifically, we used the spatial gravity center model to analyze the changes in spatiotemporal distribution of grain production and farmland resources, introduced sensitivity analysis to explore the sensitivity of grain production to changes in farmland resources, adopted spatial mismatch analysis to measure the imbalance between grain production and farmland resources, and used panel regression models to analyze the factors influencing this spatial mismatch. The research results showed that during the study period, global grain production has been increasing and the farmland area has remained basically unchanged. Countries in which grain production was highly sensitive to changes in farmland area were predominantly concentrated in Europe, Africa, and North and South America. Moreover, China and the United States showed the highest spatial mismatch coefficients (i.e., high farmland use efficiency), while the Russian Federation showed the lowest spatial mismatch coefficient (i.e., low farmland use efficiency). Furthermore, agricultural labor force, per capita farmland area, and urbanization rate had a significantly negative impact on farmland use efficiency, while the agricultural added value, grain yield per unit area, and forest cover rate produced a significantly positive impact on farmland use efficiency. These research findings can provide scientific reference for the formulation of differentiated policies for the coordinated development of global food production and farmland resources. |
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